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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."